Match snapshot
Bohemians and St. Patricks meet in the Premier Division with two teams heading in opposite directions. The home side have lost four of their last five matches, conceding 11 goals in that stretch, while the visitors have won four of their last five and kept three clean sheets in those victories. That defensive resilience from St. Patricks, combined with Bohemians’ leaky backline, sets up a contest where a draw looks unlikely. The last head-to-head meeting in April ended 3-1 to St. Patricks, and the historical pattern of no-draw outcomes in Irish Premier Division clashes with similar odds has performed well, making the double chance 12 market (either side to win, no draw) the standout angle for this fixture.
Beyond the form swing, the league’s average goals per game and the specific trends of both sides suggest value in backing a result without a stalemate. Bohemians’ home matches this season have seen an average of 2.8 total goals, but their recent defensive collapses—including a 4-1 defeat at Derry City—have inflated totals. St. Patricks, meanwhile, have kept their last three wins to under 2.5 goals, underscoring their ability to grind out results. The model’s analysis points to a 72% confidence in the double chance 12, with an expected value of nearly 10%, making it the most compelling betting option on the board.
Model pick
The best betting option is Double chance 12 (either Bohemians or St. Patricks to win) at odds of 1.33. This market has a strong historical track record in similar conditions: over 69 samples where the odds were below 1.60, the win rate hit 82.61%, producing a positive ROI of 7.07%. The model’s probability estimate for a no-draw outcome sits around 70.5%, but the historical pattern pushes it higher, creating a clear edge. St. Patricks’ superior form and Bohemians’ poor run make a draw less likely, and the data supports betting on a winner being decided.
Why it matters
A draw would be a poor result for both teams based on recent trends. Bohemians have not drawn any of their last five matches (all losses or wins), and St. Patricks have seen only one draw in their last five—a 0-0 at Derry City. The head-to-head record also shows that three of the last six meetings ended all-square, but the most recent clash (April 2026) saw St. Patricks win 3-1, breaking a run of three consecutive draws. With Bohemians in freefall and St. Patricks in confident form, the likelihood of a stalemate diminishes further. By backing double chance 12, bettors eliminate the draw risk while capturing the value of a market that has historically performed better than raw probability would suggest.
Form
Bohemians (home team):
- Last 5 matches: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses (W-L-L-L-L)
- Goals scored: 7 in 5 games (1.4 per game)
- Goals conceded: 11 in 5 games (2.2 per game)
- Last result: 0-3 loss at home to Shelbourne
- Key trend: Have conceded at least 2 goals in 4 of the last 5; their defense has been breached early in several matches.
St. Patricks (away team):
- Last 5 matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses (W-W-L-W-W)
- Goals scored: 5 in 5 games (1.0 per game)
- Goals conceded: 1 in 5 games (0.2 per game)
- Last result: 2-0 home win over Sligo Rovers
- Key trend: Three clean sheets in the last four wins; efficient attack scoring exactly 2 goals in their last two victories.
Head-to-head
| Date | Home | Away | Score | |------|------|------|-------| | Apr 24, 2026 | St. Patricks | Bohemians | 3-1 | | Feb 8, 2026 | Bohemians | St. Patricks | 0-0 | | Oct 20, 2025 | Bohemians | St. Patricks | 0-0 | | Jul 4, 2025 | St. Patricks | Bohemians | 0-0 | | Apr 25, 2025 | Bohemians | St. Patricks | 2-1 | | Mar 14, 2025 | St. Patricks | Bohemians | 3-0 |
Recent head-to-heads have been tight, with three consecutive 0-0 draws before St. Patricks’ 3-1 win in April. Bohemians have not beaten St. Patricks in the last four meetings (0 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss). The away side have won two of the last six, both by comfortable margins (3-0 and 3-1). Notably, half of the recent meetings (3 of 6) finished under 2.5 goals, but the most recent match went over that line.
Risks
- Bohemians could rebound at home despite poor form. Their last home win against St. Patricks (2-1 in April 2025) shows they are capable, even if current form says otherwise.
- St. Patricks’ defense is excellent, but they have been vulnerable on the road in the past—though recent away results (0-0 at Derry City, 1-0 loss at Shamrock Rovers) show they can keep games tight.
- The double chance 12 market offers short odds (1.33), which means a single slip (a draw) would result in a loss. The model’s historical 82.6% win rate is based on 69 samples, which is a moderate sample size; future results could vary.
- Limited league-wide data (e.g., average goals per game for the Premier Division) means the analysis leans heavily on recent form and head-to-head patterns, which may not capture the full picture of league trends.
This article is for research and educational purposes only. Always consider your own analysis and gamble responsibly.