Match snapshot
Guadalajara Chivas host Queretaro in Liga MX with the home side priced at 1.39 to win. League data shows 47 percent home wins overall, yet both teams have produced mixed recent results that include several low-scoring outcomes. The market also lists over 2.5 goals at 1.50 against a league average of 2.92 goals per game.
Match outlook
No selection clears the expected value threshold based on available probabilities. The home win price aligns with league baselines but Chivas have drawn three of their last ten matches. Over 2.5 goals sits near the 56 percent league rate for matches exceeding that total without confirmed value. Double chance options and BTTS yes at 1.71 also lack an edge above the five percent threshold. No bet is recommended on any market.
Why it matters
Liga MX averages 2.92 goals per game with a 59 percent BTTS rate and 25 percent draws. These figures set a baseline for what to expect, yet the specific recent goal trends for each side create a narrower picture than the prices suggest. Home advantage remains relevant but the away side has kept games close in multiple outings.
Form
Chivas last five matches produced an average of 3.8 total goals. Their results include a 2-2 draw at Club America, a 3-0 home win over UNAM Pumas, a 0-3 away win at Atl. San Luis, a 1-1 draw at Pachuca, and a 5-2 home win over Club Tijuana. Queretaro last five matches averaged 2.0 total goals. Their results include a 1-1 home draw with Club Leon, a 0-1 away win at Club Tijuana, a 1-3 loss at Atlas, a 1-2 home loss to Toluca, and a 0-0 draw at UNAM Pumas.
- Chivas recent scoring: three draws in ten overall
- Queretaro recent scoring: one clean sheet in last ten
- League home win rate: 47 percent
Head-to-head
Six recent meetings appear in the database. Four finished under 2.5 goals.
| Date | Home | Away | Score | Total Goals | |------------|-------------------|------------------|-------|-------------| | 2026-01-17 | Guadalajara Chivas| Queretaro | 2-1 | 3 | | 2025-10-23 | Queretaro | Guadalajara Chivas | 1-0 | 1 | | 2025-02-01 | Guadalajara Chivas| Queretaro | 1-1 | 2 | | 2024-07-17 | Queretaro | Guadalajara Chivas | 0-2 | 2 | | 2024-04-21 | Guadalajara Chivas| Queretaro | 2-0 | 2 | | 2023-11-01 | Queretaro | Guadalajara Chivas | 1-2 | 3 |
Risks
Variable expected goals across recent matches limit pattern reliability. No team news or absences are supplied. High odds on away win and draw reduce appeal for alternatives. Chivas have conceded late in at least one recent game while Queretaro have shown one clean sheet in their last ten.
The piece is for research and education, and it is not a recommendation to bet.