Match snapshot
Henan Songshan Longmen welcome Shanghai Port to Zhengzhou in a Chinese Super League fixture that pits red-hot home form against a statistical edge for the visitors. The hosts have won four of their last five, including an impressive 2-1 victory at Beijing Guoan, but the numbers tell a different story. Shanghai Port, despite inconsistent results, carry a +11.85% expected value according to the model, making them the only market with a clear edge. The match also presents a goals contrast: Henan’s recent games average just 2.2 total goals, while Shanghai Port’s average 3.0, suggesting an open contest if the visitors’ attacking threat materializes.
Model pick
Selection: Shanghai Port to win (Away win) Odds: 3.28 Confidence: 65% Expected value: +11.85%
The analytical model gives Shanghai Port a 34.1% chance of winning, higher than the 29.2% implied by the odds of 3.28. This is the only betting market with positive expected value above 5%. While historical patterns caution against backing away wins at this price, the current odds and form analysis suggest the visitors are being undervalued. Shanghai Port have already shown they can grind out results on the road, most recently a 1-0 win at Chengdu Rongcheng.
Why it matters
A bet on Shanghai Port at 3.28 offers a significant overlay compared to the implied probability. No other market approaches this edge – double chance 1X has negative expected value (-15.7%), over 2.5 goals barely clears 4% (below the 5% threshold), and both teams to score is also negative. For those looking for a value play in the Super League, this away win stands out as the most promising angle.
Form
Henan Songshan Longmen (last 5): - W, L, W, W, W - Home form: 2 wins, 2 losses in last 4 home games - Recent wins: 2-1 at Beijing Guoan, 2-1 at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger, 1-0 vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng - Scoring average: 1.2 goals per game in last 10 - Defensive average: 1.1 conceded per game - Played only 1 home game in their last 5 (a 0-2 loss to Zhejiang)
Shanghai Port (last 5): - W, L, D, W, D - Away form: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in last 5 away - Recent results: 2-1 win at Shanghai Second, 1-0 win at Chengdu Rongcheng, 1-1 draw at home vs Tianjin - Scoring average: 1.7 goals per game in last 10 - Defensive average: 1.5 conceded per game - Showed resilience in tough away fixtures (Chengdu win despite low xG)
Head-to-head
These sides have met six times in recent seasons, with away wins occurring in four of those matches. Only one of the six finished under 2.5 goals.
| Date | Home | Away | Score | Winner | |------|------|------|-------|--------| | 2026-03-07 | Shanghai Port | Henan Songshan Longmen | 1-2 | Henan (away) | | 2025-08-15 | Shanghai Port | Henan Songshan Longmen | 4-1 | Shanghai Port | | 2025-06-18 | Henan Songshan Longmen | Shanghai Port | 1-3 | Shanghai Port | | 2024-07-05 | Henan Songshan Longmen | Shanghai Port | 0-1 | Shanghai Port | | 2024-03-30 | Shanghai Port | Henan Songshan Longmen | 3-1 | Shanghai Port | | 2023-08-25 | Henan Songshan Longmen | Shanghai Port | 3-1 | Henan |
Risks
- Henan’s current winning streak, including a 2-1 away victory over Beijing Guoan, shows they are in good form and difficult to beat.
- The away-win market historically underperforms in this system, with just a 44.23% win rate overall and a 29% win rate for odds >=2.50 in the Chinese Super League.
- No head-to-head data exists for this exact venue in recent years, and the small sample of recent matches may not fully capture current momentum.
- Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities at times – Shanghai Port conceded three goals to Liaoning Tieren in their last away game.
This analysis is for research and educational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly.