Match snapshot
A mid-table Botola Pro matchup sees Yacoub El Mansour host Hassania Agadir. Both sides are level on points and searching for consistency, but recent games have featured goals. League averages sit at 2.17 goals per match, and both teams’ last five outings have produced an average of 2.4 total goals. That points to a higher-scoring affair than the odds might suggest.
Model pick
Over 2.5 goals at 2.14 odds. The market prices this outcome at just 46.7%, but detailed analysis gives it roughly a 53% chance. That gap delivers a positive expected value of 13.6%, comfortably above the threshold to be considered a strong play. With both sides averaging 2.4 total goals per game in recent runs, the numbers support backing more goals.
Why it matters
This is a value-driven selection rather than a certainty. The league overall sees only 38% of matches go over 2.5, but the specifics of this fixture tilt the balance. Yacoub El Mansour have scored in nine of their last ten home matches, while Hassania Agadir’s away games tend to open up – three of their last four trips to other grounds went over 2.5. The odds haven’t adjusted to that reality yet.
Form
- Yacoub El Mansour (last 10): 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses. Averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. At home: mixed results but consistently finding the net. Last five: average total goals 2.4.
- Hassania Agadir (last 10): 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses. Averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Away from home: higher-scoring; three of last four away matches went over 2.5. Last five: average total goals 2.4.
- League-wide stats: 2.17 goals per match, 68% over 1.5, 38% over 2.5, 50% both teams to score.
Head-to-head
There are three previous meetings between these sides in the database, all since 2024. Every one finished under 2.5 goals, including a 2-0 home win for Hassania Agadir in January 2026. Two earlier matches in the Excellence Cup also stayed low: a 2-0 victory for Yacoub El Mansour and a 1-0 result for Hassania. That head-to-head record is a clear counterpoint to the over play.
| Date | Home | Away | Score | Over/Under 2.5 | |------|------|------|-------|-----------------| | Jan 31, 2026 | Hassania Agadir | Yacoub El Mansour | 2-0 | Under | | Feb 1, 2025 | Hassania Agadir | Yacoub El Mansour | 0-2 | Under | | Sep 8, 2024 | Yacoub El Mansour | Hassania Agadir | 0-1 | Under |
Risks
- The head-to-head history is a stubborn data point: three straight unders. However, two of those matches were in a secondary cup competition, and the third saw Yacoub playing away. The sample is also very small.
- Both teams are erratic. Yacoub have lost two of their last three home games, and Hassania have drawn two of their last four overall. Inconsistency can produce defensive mistakes but also shutouts.
- No injury or suspension information is available. A key player sitting out could swing the match, especially in attack or defence.
- League over 2.5 rate of 38% suggests most Botola Pro games stay low, so this bet goes against the macro trend.
Given the head-to-head unders, some risk is attached. But the model leans on the recent goal-scoring patterns and the positive price gap. The odds at 2.14 provide enough margin to take the chance.
This analysis is for research and educational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly.